Mahama Takes Commanding Lead in 2024 Election Poll
With the December 2024 elections fast approaching, John Dramani Mahama (JDM), the National Democratic Congress (NDC) opposition leader, is leading the race, according to the latest Global InfoAnalytics poll. Mahama has secured 51.1% of the committed voters, while Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB) of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) trails behind at 37.3%. Independent candidates Alan Kwadwo Kyeremanten (AKK) and Nana Kwame Bediako (NKB) hold 4.1% and 6.2% of the vote, respectively, with 1.3% of the vote going to other candidates.
In the unweighted likely voters’ model, Mahama’s lead remains strong at 49.3%, compared to Bawumia’s 35.9%.
Voter Apathy and Floating Voters
The NPP is facing voter apathy, with 16% of potential non-voters identified as NPP supporters. The NDC, by contrast, only sees 3% of its supporters in this category. Among floating voters, Mahama enjoys a significant advantage, leading Bawumia by a 31-point margin (54% to 23%). He also leads by 18 points among voters who declined to disclose their party affiliations.
First-Time and Muslim Voters
Mahama’s support has surged among first-time voters, with a 46% to 38% lead over Bawumia, a notable improvement from the July 2024 poll, which had them tied. Bawumia, however, is seeing a worrying trend in his campaign, as his support among Muslim voters—one of his key demographics—has dropped by nearly 4% between July and October 2024.
Shifts Among 2020 NPP Voters
Mahama has managed to attract 19% of voters who supported President Nana Akufo-Addo in the 2020 election, while 70% remain loyal to Bawumia. Alan Kyeremanten and Nana Kwame Bediako have each attracted 5% of these voters. In key regions such as Greater Accra and Central, 20% and 37% of 2020 NPP voters have shifted their allegiance to Mahama.
Regional Strength
Mahama leads in 12 regions, having gained the Bono region since the July poll. His stronghold includes Greater Accra, Central, Western, Western North, Bono, Bono East, Northern, Savannah, Upper East, Upper West, Oti, and Volta regions. Meanwhile, Bawumia maintains control in the Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, and North East regions.
Independent candidates, particularly Kyeremanten and Bediako, are chipping away at Bawumia’s dominance, especially in the Ashanti and Eastern regions. In the Ashanti region, where the NPP aims to capture 85% of the vote, Bawumia stands at 66%, while Mahama garners 22%, Bediako 7%, and Kyeremanten 4%.
Parliamentary Race
Mahama is outperforming his party’s parliamentary candidates in 56 of the 111 constituencies surveyed. In contrast, Bawumia trails his candidates in 79 constituencies, underscoring the impact of Kyeremanten and Bediako on the NPP’s prospects.
Voter Concerns: Economy, Jobs, and Education
The economy remains the top issue for voters heading into the election, with 70% identifying it as their primary concern. Jobs (62%) and education (48%) follow closely. Additionally, 55% of voters say that current economic conditions are influencing their decision, followed by party performance (40%), candidate credibility (34%), and party manifestos (28%).
On manifesto favorability, the NDC holds a 14-point lead over the NPP, with the NPP’s manifesto carrying a net favorability rating of +6 points.
National Sentiment and Leadership Approval
The poll reveals a general dissatisfaction with the country’s direction, as 62% of voters believe Ghana is on the wrong track. This sentiment is especially pronounced among NDC voters (88%), floating voters (74%), and supporters of other parties (76%). However, 64% of NPP voters believe the country is heading in the right direction.
President Nana Akufo-Addo’s job approval rating stands at 36%, with 59% disapproving of his performance. The government’s overall performance is rated as poor or very poor by 49% of respondents, while 30% rate it as good or very good.
As the December election approaches, Mahama’s substantial lead in key regions and among critical voter demographics positions him as the front-runner. Bawumia and the NPP face increasing challenges, particularly from independent candidates and rising voter discontent with the state of the economy.
