The World Bank has recently unveiled its April 2024 Commodity Outlook Report, projecting a notable decrease of 6% in global food prices for 2024, followed by an additional 4% decline in 2025.
This downward trend is primarily driven by anticipated lower prices for grains, oils, and meals, while other food categories are expected to experience price gains in 2024. However, 2025 is predicted to see widespread declines in food prices.
The report forecasts an 11% drop in the grains price index for 2024, fueled by increased global grain supplies. Specifically, wheat prices are anticipated to decrease by 15% in 2024 due to heightened production, with an additional 2% decline projected for 2025.
These projections coincide with robust export competition and marginally higher production, offset by slightly increased consumption and the lowest end-of-season stocks-to-use ratio in eight years.
Global maize production is on track to achieve a record high in the 2023–24 seasons, while global rice production in 2023–24 remains stagnant, leading to the lowest stock-to-use ratio in three years.
Rice prices are forecasted to rise by 8% year-on-year in 2024 due to tight global markets and export restrictions imposed by India.
In the Ghanaian context, a reversal in food disinflation is evident, as the food inflation rate surged from 27.0% in February to 29.6% in March 2024. This uptick in food inflation coincides with ongoing concerns about food insecurity in the sub-Saharan region.
As global food prices are expected to decrease, it remains to be seen how these shifts will impact Ghana’s food market and the overall food security situation in the country.
